Demand Signal Explorer

Land restoration to date (922,717.86 ha, +3.6% vegetation cover) covers only part of the ~70 million people facing desertification, and the ACReSAL project is active in just 19 of Nigeria's 36 states, leaving most desertification-affected areas without restoration investment. The ACReSAL project mid-term review reports 922,717.86 hectares of land brought under restoration so far, against a backdrop where an estimated 70 million people in Nigeria face desertification pressure.

ACReSAL currently covers only 19 of Nigeria's 36 states (9.3 million beneficiaries), leaving the remaining states with similar agro-climatic vulnerability without access to the program's land restoration and climate resilience support. The ACReSAL (Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-Arid Landscapes) project currently covers 19 of Nigeria's 36 states, reaching 9.3 million direct beneficiaries (9.3 million farmer beneficiaries) with 48.9% women's participation.

The planned 774 soil health laboratories under ACReSAL are concentrated in the 19 covered states, leaving climate-smart agriculture advisory services (soil testing, fertilizer recommendations) without dedicated infrastructure in the remaining 17 states. Soil health labs are a foundational input for climate-smart agriculture advisory (fertilizer recommendations, soil management), and the scale planned (774 units) signals a significant infrastructure investment gap being addressed across the 19 covered states.

About 20.9% of ACReSAL beneficiary households still lack improved water access despite 25,298 ha of irrigation development and 965 solar boreholes drilled, leaving a residual water-access gap even among program participants. ACReSAL has developed 25,298 hectares of irrigated area, while 79.1% of beneficiary households report improved water access (implying a remaining gap of roughly 20.9% of households without improved access) and 965 solar-powered boreholes have been drilled.

Only 9,659 of ACReSAL's 9.3 million beneficiaries (a small fraction) have gained secure land access through the project, leaving most women in the program - and the broader 48.9% female participant base - without formalized land tenure. ACReSAL reports 9,659 women have gained secure land access through the project, alongside a 48.9% overall women's participation rate.

The NGN 50 billion green bond and 20 catchment management plans are currently limited to ACReSAL's 19 covered states, leaving the remaining 17 states without access to this climate-finance instrument for restoration, irrigation, and catchment management. The ACReSAL program reports a NGN 50 billion green bond issued to support agricultural and climate resilience investment, alongside 20 strategic catchment management plans developed across covered states.

Nigeria's rice self-sufficiency rate of ~60% means roughly 40% of national rice consumption (against ~4.5 million MT domestic production) still depends on imports, representing a substantial production and value-chain gap. Nigeria produced an estimated 4.5 million metric tons of paddy rice in 2023 with a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 60%, meaning roughly 40% of national rice consumption still depends on imports.

Kenya's rice import dependency of ~70% (against 130,000 MT domestic production) and a yield gap of 2-3 t/ha rainfed vs 4-5 t/ha irrigated represent a large unmet domestic production capacity that existing irrigated area (16,000 ha) and improved varieties have not yet closed. AfricaRice-KALRO joint varieties (5+ released) and a 16,000-hectare irrigated lowland rice area (Mwea, Ahero, West Kano, Bunyala, Tana Delta, Hola) provide an existing production base; smallholder yields average 4-5 t/ha irrigated vs 2-3 t/ha rainfed, indicating room to close the gap through irrigation expansion and adoption of improved varieties.

The Nigeria Youth in Rice Agribusiness Program has trained only 500+ youth and supported 200+ parboiling enterprises, a small footprint relative to Nigeria's overall rice sector (4.5 million MT production, 60% self-sufficiency) and the 60-80% female share of post-harvest labor that falls short of AfricaRice's 40% female-beneficiary target. AfricaRice's Nigeria Youth in Rice Agribusiness Program, active in the Niger Delta and North-East states, trained 500+ youth agripreneurs in 2023 and has supported 200+ parboiling enterprises in Nigeria, where women make up 60-80% of the rice post-harvest labor force (against an organization-wide target of 40% female beneficiaries).

Hermetic storage technology that cuts post-harvest rice losses by 30-50% in pilot areas has not yet been scaled to Nigeria's and Kenya's main rice-growing areas, leaving both countries' production gaps (60% self-sufficiency and 70% import dependency, respectively) exposed to avoidable storage losses. Given that Nigeria (60% self-sufficient, 4.5M MT production) and Kenya (70% import-dependent) both face production gaps that post-harvest losses worsen, expanding hermetic storage deployment in these two countries' rice-growing areas represents a relatively low-cost lever to improve effective supply without new land or irrigation investment.

Women farmers in Nigeria, who make up roughly half the agricultural workforce, face limited land rights and lack of startup capital that mainstream financial and land-tenure systems are not adequately addressing, as illustrated by the case of Keziah Danjuma Ubandoma. One Acre Fund's 2025 Annual Report profiles Keziah Danjuma Ubandoma, a 24-year-old woman farmer in Pyatta Village, Nigeria, whose education was cut short by financial hardship and who turned to farming to build financial independence.

One Acre Fund remains 'Africa's largest purchaser' of smallholder crop insurance at only 1.5 million clients continent-wide (vs 1.255 million Kenya clients alone), indicating that crop insurance coverage against extreme weather remains far below the protection need across OAF's full client base. One Acre Fund reports it remained Africa's largest purchaser of crop insurance on behalf of smallholders in 2025, covering 1.5 million clients against extreme weather events, and continued developing 'One Acre Fund Re' — a not-for-profit reinsurance facility that in 2025 helped lower premiums and strengthen coverage for farmers in Kenya and Malawi specifically.

Kenya's government fertilizer subsidy program is crowding out private-sector input delivery - OAF's full-service farmer base declined slightly in 2025 partly because the subsidy reduced demand for its input offerings - revealing a lack of coordination between public subsidy design and private input channels. Evidence identifies: OAF full-service program farmers declined slightly in 2025 vs 2024; explicit statement: 'In Kenya, the government has continued its fertilizer subsidy program; this has reduced demand for our own input offerings, prompting us to explore new channels for impact.

Zambia's agroforestry-based carbon credit program serves only 20,000 partnership farmers and remains a 'Start-Up Market' trial, far below the scale of OAF's mature markets (Rwanda 2.3 million, Kenya 1.26 million farmers), leaving most Zambian smallholders without access to this climate-finance-linked model. One Acre Fund classifies Zambia as a 'Start-Up Market' with only 20,000 partnership farmers (Partnerships: 20,000), and explicitly states that 'In Zambia, our agroforestry-based carbon credit trial is our main program' — with farm-input credit available only to farmers enrolled in the carbon program, and not all of those farmers choosing to take up input credit.

Rural youth make up 45.5% of Kenya's financially excluded population - the single largest excluded segment - indicating a sizable, quantified shortfall in youth-targeted financial products (savings, credit, mobile money) in rural areas. The 2024 FinAccess Household Survey finds that rural youth account for 45.5% of Kenya's financially excluded population — the single largest excluded segment.

Counties such as Turkana and West Pokot show markedly higher financial exclusion rates than counties like Kiambu and Nairobi, indicating that financial-sector investment and agent-network expansion has not reached these high-exclusion counties. The survey identifies Turkana, West Pokot, and similar counties as having the highest financial exclusion rates in Kenya, in sharp contrast to Kiambu, Nairobi, and other counties with the highest inclusion rates.

The 2024 FinAccess survey's explicit recommendation to improve the Hustler Fund's terms indicates that Kenya's flagship government micro-loan scheme is not yet meeting low-income borrowers' needs in its current form. The 2024 FinAccess Household Survey includes an explicit policy recommendation to improve the terms of the Hustler Fund (Kenya's government-backed micro-loan scheme).

Nearly 1 in 10 (9.8%) mobile money users in Kenya reported losing money to service downtime, indicating a material consumer-protection and regulatory-oversight gap in the country's dominant financial access channel. The survey finds that 9.8% of mobile money users in Kenya reported losing money due to service downtime.

Agricultural insurance covers only ~260,000 of Kenya's 1.77 million total insurance users (about 14.7%), a significant under-penetration given agriculture's role as a dominant livelihood and the country's drought/rainfall exposure. The survey finds that only about 260,000 agricultural users hold agricultural insurance, out of 1.77 million total insurance users in Kenya (2024) — meaning agricultural insurance represents roughly 14.7% of total insurance uptake despite agriculture being a dominant livelihood activity for rural households.

Only about 27% of solar purchases in Kenya are loan-financed, even though rural solar adoption (25.1%) already outpaces urban (10.0%) - indicating that financing/credit products for solar have not kept pace with underlying rural demand. The survey finds rural solar adoption (25.1%) is more than double urban solar adoption (10.0%), yet only about 27% of solar purchases are loan-financed — meaning the majority of rural solar uptake is happening through cash purchase or other means rather than credit.