Zambia's 2025 cereal production rebounded by an estimated 106.5% over the drought-reduced 2024 harvest, driven by favourable La Nina-related rainfall, underscoring the country's high exposure to year-to-year rainfall volatility
Executive Summary
Table 10 (Southern Africa cereal production, million tonnes): Zambia coarse grains 1.6 (2024) -> 3.7 (2025 forecast), total cereals 1.9 -> 3.9 (+106.5%), against a five-year average of 3.2 million tonnes. "Following the drought-reduced harvest in 2024, the subregion recorded a strong production recovery in 2025... The rebound was largely driven by favourable weather conditions during the 2024/25 summer cropping season (November-June)... Prevailing La Nina conditions, which are expected to continue into early 2026, underpin forecasts of above-average rainfall amounts."
This signal falls under the Maize / Coarse grains sector in Zambia, classified as a Policy Demand, Research/Evidence Demand — indicative of a systemic gap requiring coordinated institutional response.
Core demand gap identified: Zambia's cereal production swung from a drought-reduced 1.9 million tonnes (2024) to 3.9 million tonnes (2025, +106.5%), illustrating the high year-to-year rainfall volatility smallholder cereal farmers face and the need for resilience measures (irrigation, drought-tolerant varieties, storage) to smooth production swings between La Nina and drought years.
Impact areas intersected: Nutrition, Health & Food Security, Climate Adaptation & Mitigation. Key indicator: Zambia total cereal production: 1.9 million tonnes (2024) -> 3.9 million tonnes (2025 forecast), +106.5% y/y; coarse grains 1.6 -> 3.7 million tonnes vs five-year average of 3.2 million tonnes.
Top Evidence Points
- →Table 10 (Southern Africa cereal production, million tonnes): Zambia coarse grains 1.6 (2024) -> 3.7 (2025 forecast), total cereals 1.9 -> 3.9 (+106.5%), against a five-year average of 3.2 million tonnes. "Following the drought-reduced harvest in 2024, the subregion recorded a strong production recovery in 2025... The rebound was largely driven by favourable weather conditions during the 2024/25 summer cropping season (November-June)... Prevailing La Nina conditions, which are expected to continue into early 2026, underpin forecasts of above-average rainfall amounts."
- →Key indicator: Zambia total cereal production: 1.9 million tonnes (2024) -> 3.9 million tonnes (2025 forecast), +106.5% y/y; coarse grains 1.6 -> 3.7 million tonnes vs five-year average of 3.2 million tonnes
- →Demand gap: Zambia's cereal production swung from a drought-reduced 1.9 million tonnes (2024) to 3.9 million tonnes (2025, +106.5%), illustrating the high year-to-year rainfall volatility smallholder cereal farmers face and the need for resilience measures (irrigation, drought-tolerant varieties, storage) to smooth production swings between La Nina and drought years.
- →Signal ranks #27 of 28 signals tracked in Zambia · Single-year observation
Investment Implications
The signal's medium priority classification (score 56/100) and medium evidence base position Zambia as an actionable investment context. With 0 peer signals in Zambia, this demand cluster warrants coordinated investment response.
Addressing the demand captured in this signal requires coordinated action across government, CGIAR research partners, and development finance institutions active in Zambia. Blended finance structures can reduce implementation risk and mobilise private sector participation at scale.
Research Needs
- 1.Baseline assessment to quantify and confirm the demand gap: Zambia's cereal production swung from a drought-reduced 1.9 million tonnes (2024) to 3.9 million tonnes (2025, +106.5%), illustrating the high year-to-year rainfall volatility smallholder cereal farmers face and the need for resilience measures (irrigation, drought-tolerant varieties, storage) to smooth production swings between La Nina and drought years.
- 2.Stakeholder mapping and willingness-to-invest study in target National geographies
- 3.Climate scenario and risk modelling for the intervention area through 2030
- 4.Monitoring & evaluation framework design for proposed interventions
- 5.Cross-country learning synthesis from comparable CGIAR programmes addressing Cereal Production Recovery Following 2024 Drought and Exposure to Rainfall Volatility
Recommended Actions
Commission a rapid feasibility assessment for priority interventions addressing Cereal Production Recovery Following 2024 Drought and Exposure to Rainfall Volatility in Zambia. Allocate co-financing in the next national budget cycle.
Deploy field research team for needs assessment and evidence verification in Zambia. Publish findings as an open-access technical brief for investor and government use.
Structure concessional facility to anchor private co-investment. Engage AFDB, World Bank, and IFAD via the Catalyst Lab investment pipeline dashboard for Zambia.
Signal verified against IWMI QA Protocol v3.2. Confidence score incorporates source diversity index, temporal recency weighting (half-life: 18 months), and geographic specificity.
Scheduled re-verification: September 2026. Signal classification will be updated if new evidence materially changes the evidence weight or priority ranking.
IWMI Analytics Team · Catalyst Lab Platform. Contact the platform administrator to request a signal dataset export or co-investor briefing pack.