Zambia's 2025 Cereal Production Rebounded by an Estimated 106.5% over the Drought-reduced 2024 Harvest, Driven by Favourable La Nina-related Rainfall, Underscoring the Country's High Exposure to Year-to-year Rainfall Volatility

Situation

In Zambia, priority demand is recorded across National, within the domain of Climate Risk, Resilience & Early Warning, focusing on Maize / Coarse grains. Primary beneficiaries include smallholder cereal (maize) farmers in zambia exposed to recurring drought and rainfall variability.

Extracted Evidence

Following the drought-reduced harvest in 2024, the subregion recorded a strong production recovery in 2025 The rebound was largely driven by favourable weather conditions during the 2024/25 summer cropping season (November-June) Prevailing La Nina conditions, which are expected to continue into early 2026, underpin forecasts of above-average rainfall amounts. Table 10 (Southern Africa cereal production, million tonnes): Zambia coarse grains 1.6 (2024) -> 3.7 (2025 forecast), total cereals 1.9 -> 3.9 (+106.5%), against a five-year average of 3.2 million tonnes.

Intelligence

When an expressed demand in National is rated High with a priority score of 8.9/10 (Act tier), the limiting factor is scaling and investment reach. Sustaining action within current perimeters leaves the wider crisis unaddressed. Expanding coordinated response across Analytical Assessments & Models is the strategic imperative.

Demand Signal

This demand is classified as an Derived Demand, formally stated through Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). It carries signal type(s): Policy Demand, Research/Evidence Demand. Demand strength is rated High. Priority score: 8.9 out of 10. Response tier: Act.

Demand Description

Zambia's cereal production swung from a drought-reduced 1.9 million tonnes (2024) to 3.9 million tonnes (2025, +106.5%), illustrating the high year-to-year rainfall volatility smallholder cereal farmers face and the need for resilience measures (irrigation, drought-tolerant varieties, storage) to smooth production swings between La Nina and drought years. The rebound was part of a broader Southern Africa recovery (aggregate cereal output of 41 million tonnes, 5% above the five-year average) driven by favourable rainfall during the November 2024-June 2025 summer cropping season under La Nina conditions, following the drought-reduced 2024 harvest.

Demand Gap

Gap type: Infrastructure & Irrigation Gap, Production & Productivity Gap, Climate & Resilience Gap.

Zambia's cereal production swung from a drought-reduced 1.9 million tonnes (2024) to 3.9 million tonnes (2025, +106.5%), illustrating the high year-to-year rainfall volatility smallholder cereal farmers face and the need for resilience measures (irrigation, drought-tolerant varieties, storage) to smooth production swings between La Nina and drought years.

Gap Signal

Following the drought-reduced harvest in 2024, the subregion recorded a strong production recovery in 2025 The rebound was largely driven by favourable weather conditions during the 2024/25 summer cropping season (November-June) Prevailing La Nina conditions, which are expected to continue into early 2026, underpin forecasts of above-average rainfall amounts. Table 10 (Southern Africa cereal production, million tonnes): Zambia coarse grains 1.6 (2024) -> 3.7 (2025 forecast), total cereals 1.9 -> 3.9 (+106.5%), against a five-year average of 3.2 million tonnes.

Stakeholders and Target Group

Source

Document

Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Quarterly Global Report No. 3, November 2025 (Assessment, November 2025).

Organisation

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)

Citation

FAO. 2025. Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Quarterly Global Report No. 3, November 2025. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, GIEWS. Read the primary source