Finance and Scale Anticipatory Drought Interventions — Small-scale Irrigation and Drought-tolerant Crops — in Zambia's Western Province, Which Show Bcrs Exceeding 1 at All District Levels

Situation

In Zambia, priority demand is recorded across Western Province (Kalabo, Kaoma, Limulunga, Mongu, Nkeyema, Senanga, Sesheke, Shangombo districts), within the domain of Climate Risk, Resilience & Early Warning, focusing on Maize, drought-tolerant crops, small-scale irrigation / disaster risk finance. Primary beneficiaries include smallholder farming communities in western province; zambia ministry of agriculture and disaster risk management agencies.

Extracted Evidence

BCRs for all anticipatory action scenarios exceed 1.0 at provincial and district levels The 2018 drought in Western/Southern Provinces was recorded as one of the worst in recent history; lack of large-scale anticipatory measures led to widespread hardship.

Intelligence

When an expressed demand in Western Province (Kalabo, Kaoma, Limulunga, Mongu, Nkeyema, Senanga, Sesheke, Shangombo districts) is rated High with a priority score of 9.7/10 (Act tier), the limiting factor is scaling and investment reach. Sustaining action within current perimeters leaves the wider crisis unaddressed. Expanding coordinated response across Development Agencies & Donors, Government & Public Policy, Private Sector & Industry, Producers & Local Communities, Research & Scientific Institutions is the strategic imperative.

Demand Signal

This demand is classified as an Expressed Demand, formally stated through International Water Management Institute (IWMI). It carries signal type(s): Policy Demand, Financing/Investment Demand, Scaling Demand, Innovation Demand. Demand strength is rated High. Priority score: 9.7 out of 10. Response tier: Act.

Demand Description

Western Province remains almost entirely dependent on rainfed agriculture with very little irrigation infrastructure, leaving farming communities exposed to recurrent droughts despite strong economic evidence that anticipatory investment in irrigation and drought-tolerant varieties would reduce losses at BCRs above 1.0. A cost-benefit analysis of anticipatory actions against recurrent droughts in Western Province demonstrates that province-wide small-scale irrigation and/or drought-tolerant crop variety adoption yield BCRs above 1.0 across all districts and scenarios — meaning each dollar invested in advance of drought generates more than a dollar in avoided losses and relief costs.

Demand Gap

Gap type: Infrastructure & Irrigation Gap, Climate & Resilience Gap, Access to Inputs, Finance & Credit Gap.

Western Province remains almost entirely dependent on rainfed agriculture with very little irrigation infrastructure, leaving farming communities exposed to recurrent droughts despite strong economic evidence that anticipatory investment in irrigation and drought-tolerant varieties would reduce losses at BCRs above 1.0.

Gap Signal

BCRs for all anticipatory action scenarios exceed 1.0 at provincial and district levels The 2018 drought in Western/Southern Provinces was recorded as one of the worst in recent history; lack of large-scale anticipatory measures led to widespread hardship.

Stakeholders and Target Group

Source

Document

Cost-benefit analysis of drought risk reduction anticipatory action in the Western Province of Zambia (Research Report, 2025-12).

Organisation

International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

Citation

Matchaya, G. C.; Kasoma-Pele, W.; Mutenje, M. J. 2025. Cost-benefit analysis of drought risk reduction anticipatory action in the Western Province of Zambia. Colombo, Sri Lanka: IWMI. CGIAR Food Frontiers and Security Program. 42p. Read the primary source